The Shadow War

Jim Sciutto's "The Shadow War" reveals the invisible but highly effective tactics Russia and China are using to weaken the United States and its allies. Today, conventional wars are taking a back seat to new forms of conflict that are indirect, silent, but extremely effective. These hybrid strategies use a combination of cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, economic coercion and political interference. The reader thus gains a unique insight into how global powers seek to achieve their goals without using conventional military methods, but instead operate in the 'shadows' where there are no clear rules or clear boundaries between war and peace. Sciutto reveals that these tactics are just as dangerous as traditional warfare because they undermine stability, trust and the security of countries. The examples provided in the book show us specific cases where hybrid tactics have disrupted government institutions, destabilized societies, or created new economic dependencies. Each chapter thus invites us deeper into the world of contemporary conflicts, where the boundaries between enemies and allies are increasingly blurred.

War is no longer just about tanks, planes and direct military interventions. In the modern world, a new, much more complex phenomenon is entering the scene - hybrid warfare. This mode of conflict is used mainly by major powers such as Russia and China to achieve their foreign policy objectives without risking open conflict that could result in military retaliation. They use methods that are not visible at first sight but have a devastating effect on their opponents - a combination of cyber-attacks, disinformation and economic pressure. Cyber attacks are only part of the hybrid strategy, but they are among the most dangerous. For example, an attack on electricity grid infrastructure can paralyse entire cities, as happened in Ukraine in 2015, when a hacking attack caused power outages for hundreds of thousands of people. In this case, the attack was swift, invisible and left behind a lot of damage. Such operations do not require military forces - all you need is a team of well-trained hackers and a plan to destroy key systems. Hybrid warfare also relies on the manipulation of public opinion through disinformation. These methods are particularly effective in countries where society has a distrust of the government or the media. In this case, social networks become a tool for propaganda and manipulation. Fake news, which spreads quickly, can influence political attitudes, elections or subvert social norms. In 2016, Russia was accused of interfering in the US presidential election, spreading polarising information through thousands of fake accounts that aimed to divide society. Economic coercion is another important element of this strategy. China is gradually building up its economic dominance over strategic sectors in various countries. Countries that accept Chinese loans under the Belt and Road Project often find themselves in an economic dependency that forces them to act in favour of China. One example is Sri Lanka, which in 2017 had to hand over the Hambantota port to the Chinese government for 99 years after finding itself unable to repay its debt. This is how conflict, which has no clear front lines but can destabilise countries, arises subtly and systematically. Hybrid warfare is therefore a threat that is difficult to detect and difficult to defend against. A single decision - to ignore the warning signs - can put national security at risk.

Cyber-attacks are becoming a key element of modern conflicts and military strategies, with Russia and China among the most active states using this silent but extremely effective weapon. Cyber-attacks make it possible to hit critical infrastructure, obtain sensitive information or even influence the foreign policy of other states without soldiers having to cross borders. One of the most notorious examples of a cyber attack is the 2017 Operation NotPetya. This malware, believed to have been launched by Russian hackers, caused billions of dollars of damage around the world. It initially hit Ukrainian companies, including energy firms, banks, and government institutions, but it eventually hit corporations in Europe and the US as well. The NotPetya attack showed how easily cyber warfare can spill across borders, affecting not only the targeted countries, but also their trading partners and economic allies. Another way these attacks are effective is in their ability to erode the public's trust in government and the protection of their data. When the U.S. Office of Personnel Information Management was hacked in 2014, millions of government employees' personal data was exposed. This attack has been attributed to Chinese cyber espionage activities and demonstrates how cyber warfare can target a state's vulnerabilities and undermine its ability to defend its own citizens. Cyber attacks can also be a means to gain a competitive advantage in technology or research. The theft of trade secrets or intellectual property can accelerate the progress and development of the aggressor state and undermine the competitiveness of other countries. In this way, China has secured a lead in technology and production, while reducing the cost of its own research and development by stealing intellectual property. For Western countries, cyber warfare is difficult because there is no clear line where military operations end and civilian attacks begin. Cyber attacks are often carried out through anonymous networks and tools that make it impossible to quickly and effectively detect the culprit. Such attacks are not always immediately visible, but their effects are devastating - they can undermine the economy, the confidence of the population and set the stage for further aggressive action. This invisible kind of war requires a new approach to defence and security. While technological innovations in cyberspace bring new opportunities, they also expose society to dangers that are often underestimated. Cyber warfare is becoming one of the most serious challenges of the 21st century and requires not only technological but also strategic preparedness of states.

In hybrid warfare, the spread of disinformation is one of the most powerful weapons. Instead of weapons, words, lies and manipulation are used, which can hit a country as effectively as a physical attack. Disinformation is used by Russia and China to create insecurity, chaos and divisions in society, undermining the internal stability of countries and undermining public confidence in institutions. In 2016, evidence emerged of a Russian social media campaign to influence the US presidential election. Fake accounts and pages disseminated polarising content that was intended to focus attention on society's most sensitive issues - racial issues, migration and religion. This disinformation attack was designed to sow divisions in society and disrupt the cohesion of the American people. This tactic was so successful that it revealed a new way of manipulating public opinion without physical intervention. Disinformation is not just lies - it is also half-truths, exaggerated facts or stories that manipulate emotions. The aim is to make the public lose track of what is true and what is false. In Eastern Europe, stories about the 'decline' of the West, about the moral crisis, about migrants as the main threat, are commonly spread, which arouses fears and negative feelings. These stories fuel fear and promote views that are in line with the foreign policy of Russia or China. However, the impact of disinformation is not just about elections or public opinion. This kind of hybrid war aims to undermine the democratic values on which Western countries stand. Societies that are divided and polarised are more vulnerable to manipulation and less able to defend themselves against external influences. Disinformation is also affecting the media and creating doubts about the credibility of traditional information channels, opening the door to alternative sources that disseminate unverified information. Russia and China well understand the power of media strategies and use disinformation campaigns as a long-term tool to weaken the enemy. Disinformation is particularly effective in democratic countries, where freedom of speech allows for a diversity of opinions and therefore makes it more difficult to control the spread of fake news. This phenomenon also emerged in Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, when lies about vaccines and pandemic measures became widespread, undermining trust in institutions and medical authorities. At the same time, in hybrid warfare, disinformation allows the countries that spread it to hide their involvement and responsibility. When information is spread through different channels and sources, it is difficult to determine who is behind it. This gives Russia and China the opportunity to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries without being directly accused, thereby maintaining their influence while keeping the enemy in a state of uncertainty and confusion. In this way, disinformation becomes a silent but powerful weapon that affects not only politicians but also ordinary citizens. In a hybrid war, it is not always clear who is friend and who is foe, but the consequences of these psychological attacks are profound and lasting.

In addition to traditional weapons and cyber-attacks, China also uses its enormous economic power to exert global influence. Economic coercion and strategic investment have become effective tools for it that do not require military intervention, but have similar effects. These financial manoeuvres are often disguised as aid and investment in development, with the real aim being to subjugate countries that later serve Chinese interests. One of China's biggest projects that clearly illustrates this strategy is the Belt and Road Initiative. This ambitious infrastructure network, involving the construction of roads, ports and railways, stretches across Asia, Africa and Europe. The project brings the promise of development and modernisation to countries suffering from a lack of financial resources. However, many of these countries are soon discovering that loans are not free. This is how China got its hands on a strategic port in Sri Lanka, for example, which was leased to it for 99 years after Sri Lanka failed to repay its debt. China's economic influence is also being felt in Africa, where Chinese investment in extractive industries, infrastructure and energy is making significant profits. Many African countries are welcoming Chinese investment, allowing them to build roads, schools and hospitals. However, they are gradually facing problems with debt and dependence on Chinese capital, which gives China the opportunity to influence their political decisions. This gives China not only economic advantages but also influence over resources that are strategically important to its economy. In addition to infrastructure projects, China also uses economic pressure in the form of trade barriers and sanctions. Australia is an example of a country that has become a target of Chinese economic pressure after it supported the COVID-19 investigation into its origins. In response, China has imposed high tariffs on Australian wine, barley and other products, causing significant losses to Australian exporters. This kind of economic pressure clearly demonstrates that countries that do not comply with Chinese interests can face indirect, but very tangible, consequences. However, economic leverage is not just about taking advantage of weaker countries. China is also targeting technology companies abroad, which it is buying or investing in, in order to gain access to technology, innovation and information. Thanks to these investments, it has been able to acquire knowledge that it would otherwise have had to develop on its own, saving time and money and making faster progress in the development of advanced technologies. China's economic strategy shows how geopolitical objectives can be achieved without war, while the consequences for the countries affected can be long-term and difficult to reverse. Indeed, the economic impact is subtle and initially unobtrusive, but over time countries will find that their decisions are more influenced by Chinese interests than they would like. This quiet but effective tool is therefore one of the most dangerous ways in which great powers like China influence the world.

Russia and China do not just rely on direct military or economic tools to achieve their goals. Political interference has become another effective way to maintain influence abroad and undermine the stability of countries they consider strategically important. These interventions range from supporting pro-Russian and pro-Chinese parties, to manipulating electoral processes, to spreading ideological influence that undermines democratic values. One example of Russian political interference is the support for far-right and populist parties in Europe. Russia's aim is to weaken the unity of the European Union, because a divided Europe is easier for it to manipulate. Supporting parties that oppose migration, support national conservatism and openly criticise the EU gives Russia the opportunity to divide and influence countries such as Hungary, Italy and France. This support often happens indirectly, through the media, funding or covert campaigns on social networks. In terms of political influence, China has focused mainly on developing countries in Asia and Africa, where it is trying to shape a favourable political environment for its economic interests. The Chinese model of authoritarian capitalism is attractive to many leaders in these countries because it brings economic development without the need for democratic reforms. China uses this influence to promote its own ideals and sometimes even manages to influence votes at the United Nations. As a result, countries that are economically tied to Chinese aid often support Chinese interests in international organisations. Russia does not shy away from directly influencing elections, particularly in the post-Soviet republics. In Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, Moscow has sought to ensure that pro-Russian candidates loyal to Russian interests win elections. These interventions tend to be sophisticated - involving campaign financing, disinformation campaigns or even outright blackmail of political leaders. The aim is to keep these countries in the Russian sphere of influence and prevent them from moving closer to Western institutions such as NATO or the EU. The impact of these interventions is profound and may have long-term consequences. Democratic processes are undermined, society is polarised and an atmosphere of insecurity and mistrust is created. Such political interference not only creates chaos, but also undermines citizens' confidence in their own political institutions. As a result, countries with weaker democratic foundations have greater difficulty in defending themselves against these hybrid attacks. Political interference is thus an ideal tool for Russia and China to expand their influence without the use of military force. This indirect interference creates relations of dependence that can be advantageous for these countries and, at the same time, weakens the West's position in the global geopolitical space.

Sciutto's book conveys the important message that modern conflicts are no longer taking place only on battlefields, but have moved into spheres where the lines between war and peace are blurring. Russia and China are systematically using hybrid warfare tactics to influence and manipulate countries whose stability and democracy are vulnerable. The book is a warning that if Western countries do not respond to these new threats, they may fall victim to a conflict that will weaken them from within without firing a shot. Sciutto's examples of hybrid attacks underscore the need for a new form of defense that can counter these invisible but extremely effective threats. “The Shadow War” thus remains essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how the world of power and conflict is being transformed and how we can protect democracy and sovereignty at a time when traditional methods of defence are no longer sufficient. Do you have feedback for us? We'd love it if you let us know your opinion on our content! Just send an email to feedback@rewio.app with the title of this book in the subject line and share your impressions!